Ten years of discounted cash flow, the terminal value by perpetuity growth and by exit multiple, the multiple and growth each one implies, a sensitivity grid and a market cross-check.
In the worked case, ten years of forecast cash flow are worth $171.5 million. The terminal value adds $196.2 million. The part that takes all the modelling effort is 46.6% of the answer; the one assumption about the long term is 53.4%. This template makes that split visible, and puts the two ways of computing a terminal value side by side so each one disciplines the other.
One Excel file, no macros, nothing locked. No account, no email address.
| Perpetuity growth | Exit multiple | |
|---|---|---|
| Assumption | growth 1.8%, discount rate 8.5% | 14x final-year cash flow |
| Terminal value at year 10 | $443.5m | $408.7m |
| Present value | $196.2m | $180.8m |
| What it implies | an exit multiple of 15.19x | long-term growth of 1.27% |
This is the check most models skip. A growth rate of 1.8% sounds modest; it is the same statement as paying 15.2 times cash flow in year ten. An exit multiple of 14 sounds like a market price; it is the same statement as 1.27% growth forever. If either implied number is one you would not have typed, the input that produced it is wrong.
Set the exit multiple to twelve times on the Assumptions sheet. The check comparing the two methods turns from PASS to EXPLAIN, and the terminal value sheet shows why: at that multiple the growth rate implied is far below the one typed next to it. That disagreement is the most useful output a DCF can give you.
What it leaves out on purpose: tax, a debt schedule, working capital and the mid-year convention. They matter, but they would make the file about modelling rather than about the terminal value.
The cash flow in the first year after the forecast, divided by the discount rate less the long-term growth rate. It values the business as a growing perpetuity from that point.
Neither on its own. Compute both, read what each implies about the other, and investigate a wide gap before using either.
Because the forecast covers ten years and the terminal value covers everything after. On long-lived assets it is normal for it to carry half the value or more, which is why it deserves more scrutiny than it gets.
Yes. No macros, nothing locked or protected, no sign-up.
This template is one of the companion files for The Private Markets Valuation Specialist: the full set adds the market approach and calibration, the equity waterfall and bridge, credit marks across the cycle and the judgment calls workbook. Free, like this one.
This template comes from The Private Markets Valuation Specialist. The book is on Amazon.
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