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How is the CBAM certificate price calculated for 2026 imports?

For 2026 the price is fixed quarter by quarter and known before a single certificate can be bought. The quarter in which goods clear customs sets what they cost.

Julian R. Sterling · from The CBAM Compliance Handbook

For goods imported in 2026, the CBAM certificate price is set quarter by quarter: the Commission averages EU ETS auction clearing prices over each calendar quarter and publishes the figure in the first week of the next one, and each quarter's imports are priced at their own quarter's figure. From 2027 the price becomes weekly. With the published 75.36 and 75.28 euros for the first two quarters, the 82.32 published for the third and an illustrative 80.00 for the fourth, an importer owing 360 certificates pays 28,060.56 euros, an average of 77.95.

Worked in full in The CBAM Compliance Handbook by Julian R. Sterling, with every figure reproduced in a free workbook.See the book on Amazon →

The assumptions

Northbeck is the fictional steel importer of The CBAM Compliance Handbook: 8,000 tonnes of goods in 2026 at an illustrative 1.8 tonnes of CO2e a tonne, 14,400 tonnes of gross embedded emissions, and an obligation of 360 certificates as the book's table computes it. Here the certificates are spread across the quarters in proportion to imports.

Northbeck, 2026 imports and certificate prices

Quarter	Goods, t	Gross tCO2e	Certificates	Price, EUR	Status of the price
Q1 2026	2,000	3,600	90	75.36	Published in April 2026
Q2 2026	2,400	4,320	108	75.28	Published in July 2026
Q3 2026	1,800	3,240	81	82.32	Published in October 2026
Q4 2026	1,800	3,240	81	80.00	Illustrative, due January 2027
2026	8,000	14,400	360

Confirm each quarterly price against the Commission's own publication before booking it, and record the date you read it. The third-quarter figure was published on 5 October 2026; the fourth is an assumption until it is published in early January 2027.

Step 1: how one quarterly price is built

For 2026 only, the price of a certificate is the average of the clearing prices of EU ETS allowance auctions held during the quarter. There is no CBAM market and no bid: the declarant buys from the central platform at the published figure. The schedule matters because certificates for 2026 cannot be bought before 1 February 2027, and the 2026 obligation is surrendered by 30 September 2027. By then every 2026 price is known.

Step 2: price each quarter's certificates at its own price

The book's chapter 10 table, written before the second half was known, assumed 75.00 for both the third and fourth quarters and arrived at 27,062.64. The third-quarter rise alone, and the illustrative 80.00 for the fourth, add 997.92 euros, 3.7 per cent. Small in euros for an importer of this size, but the same 3.7 per cent applies to an obligation that grows every year of the phase-in.

What if the fourth-quarter price comes in differently?

Only the fourth quarter is still open. Its 81 certificates are 22.5 per cent of the year, so every euro on the Q4 price moves the bill by 81 euros.

Northbeck, 2026 cost by Q4 price

Q4 price, EUR	Total cost, EUR	Average price	EUR per tonne of goods	Change
70	27,250.56	75.70	3.41	-810.00
75	27,655.56	76.82	3.46	-405.00
80	28,060.56	77.95	3.51	0.00
85	28,465.56	79.07	3.56	405.00
90	28,870.56	80.20	3.61	810.00

The timing of imports matters as much as the level. The third quarter was 7.04 euros dearer than the second; had Northbeck's 81 third-quarter certificates fallen into the second quarter, the bill would have been 570.24 euros lower for the same tonnes. Under the 2026 rule, the quarter in which goods clear customs fixes their price.

The common mistakes

• Pricing the year at the spot price on the day of purchase. In February 2027 the ETS price could be 70 or 90 euros. Neither is the price of 2026 certificates: at 70 Northbeck would budget 25,200.00 and be 2,860.56 short, at 90 it would budget 32,400.00 and over-reserve 4,339.44.
• Using a simple average of the four quarters. 78.24 times 360 is 28,166.40, 105.84 too much here. It is close only because the quarters are similar in size; weight by certificates.
• Carrying the 2026 rule into 2027. From 2027 the price is weekly and certificates are bought during the year, so the 2027 cost depends on when they are bought. The quarterly holding requirement that drives that timing is worked in what a CBAM certificate buffer costs to hold.

Takeaway

• 2026: one price per quarter, the average of EU ETS auction clearing prices, applied to that quarter's imports.
• 2027 onwards: a weekly price.
• Northbeck: 360 certificates cost 28,060.56 euros, 77.95 on average, 3.51 a tonne of goods, on one illustrative Q4 price.
• Budget with SUMPRODUCT of certificates and quarterly prices, never with the spot price on purchase day.

The quarterly prices are editable cells in the free workbook for this case, which carries the same obligation through the 2027 treasury calendar. How the cost per tonne grows through the phase-in is in CBAM cost per tonne of steel from 2026 to 2034.

Questions readers ask

When can CBAM certificates for 2026 imports be bought?

Not before 1 February 2027, and the 2026 obligation is surrendered by 30 September 2027. Every 2026 quarterly price is published by early January 2027, so the cost is known before the first purchase. For an illustrative importer owing 360 certificates it is 28,060.56 euros, whatever the ETS price on the day of purchase.

What was the CBAM certificate price in 2026?

It is set per quarter. The Commission published 75.36 euros for the first quarter and 75.28 for the second; 82.32 for the third on 5 October 2026, and the fourth is due in early January 2027. Check each figure against the Commission's publication. With an illustrative 80.00 for the fourth quarter, the certificate-weighted average for one illustrative importer is 77.95.

Is the CBAM certificate price the same as the EU ETS price?

It follows it, but with a lag and an average. In 2026 it is the quarter's average auction clearing price, not the spot price, so an importer who budgets at the February 2027 spot of, say, 70 euros would set aside 25,200.00 for 360 certificates and be 2,860.56 short of the 28,060.56 actually due.

Also on this site

• What a CBAM certificate buffer costs to holdCarry and protection are both linear in the buffer, so the break-even probability is the same at 5 per cent and at 30. And 2027 costs exactly twice 2026.
• How much will CBAM cost per tonne of steel from 2026 to 2034?With a 1.37 benchmark, 2.0 tCO2 a tonne and 80 euro certificates, CBAM costs 53.14 euros a tonne of steel in 2026, 103.56 in 2030 and 160.00 in 2034.
• How do you calculate CBAM embedded emissions for a steel product?Process emissions plus precursor consumed times its SEE, over output. 2,400 plus 21,500 t of wire rod at 1.90, over 20,000 t, gives 2.1625 tCO2e a tonne.
• How do you calculate CBAM embedded emissions for aluminium?Direct emissions only: extrusion process plus billet consumed times its SEE, over output. An illustrative profile gives 2.1925 tCO2e a tonne, coal or hydro.
• How do you calculate CBAM embedded emissions for ammonium nitrate?Own emissions, direct and indirect, plus ammonia and nitric acid consumed times their SEE, with N2O at a GWP of 265. An illustrative plant gives 1.55 tCO2e a tonne.
• Is it worth staying under the CBAM 50 tonne threshold?Crossing 50 tonnes by 5 brings all 55 into CBAM. In 2026 the certificates cost 210 euros; the fixed compliance cost, 15,000 illustrative, is what makes the cliff.

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