A wealth channel forecast is advisors times conversion times tickets times ticket size. Each driver leaves a different signature when it misses, and a late platform disguises itself as weak conversion.
Compare the miss in monthly gross flows with the miss in assets. On an illustrative wealth channel forecast to month 36, a two-point lower conversion ceiling leaves flows 11.1 per cent short and assets 4.9 per cent short, a 10 per cent smaller ticket 10.0 and 4.4, but a three-month platform launch slip only 4.2 per cent of flows and 7.3 per cent of assets. Flows and assets short together point at conversion or ticket; flows near plan with assets well short point at timing.
Worked in full in The Private Wealth Fundraiser by Julian R. Sterling, with every figure reproduced in a free workbook.See the book on Amazon →
A wealth fundraising forecast is a product of four drivers: advisors in scope on live platforms, the share of them who produce, tickets per producing advisor, and the average ticket. When the month's gross flow comes in below plan, the board asks which one failed, and the answer decides the fix: more platforms, more wholesaler coverage, a better product story, or nothing at all because the money is merely late.
| Input | Value |
|---|---|
| Seed capital at launch | 150.0 million |
| Platforms: 1,000 advisors each, live in months | 7, 12, 17, 18 |
| Conversion ceiling (share of advisors who ever produce) | 18% |
| Conversion curve: half the ceiling reached after | 9 months |
| Tickets per producing advisor a month | 0.15 |
| Average ticket | 70,000 |
| Redemptions on money held more than 12 months | 1.0% a month |
1. Build the plan month by month. Each platform converts along its own curve from its live date, so conversion depends on tenure, not on the calendar.
Producers on a platform = advisors × ceiling × t ÷ (t + 9), where t is months since it went live
Gross flow = producers × tickets per producer × average ticket
Assets = seed + cumulative gross flow − redemptions on tranches older than 12 months
Excel, per platform: =IF(t>0,Adv*Ceiling*t/(t+9),0)
At month 36 all 4,000 advisors are live, 517 produce (12.93 per cent, still well below the 18 per cent ceiling because the later platforms are young), they write 77.6 tickets, and gross flow is 5.43 million for the month. Cumulative gross flow is 93.6 million and assets stand at 209.7 million.
2. Rerun with one driver wrong at a time.
| What went wrong | Gross flow | Flow short | Assets | Assets short |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plan | 5.43 | 209.7 | ||
| Conversion ceiling 16% instead of 18% | 4.83 | 11.1% | 199.5 | 4.9% |
| Average ticket 63,000 instead of 70,000 | 4.89 | 10.0% | 200.5 | 4.4% |
| Every platform three months late | 5.20 | 4.2% | 194.4 | 7.3% |
A conversion or ticket miss scales every month's flow by the same proportion, so the flow shortfall is large and the asset shortfall smaller only because the seed capital dilutes it. A slip is different: by month 36 the platforms are three months younger but all live, so the month's flow is only slightly short, while the three months that never happened are missing from assets for good. Cumulative gross flow is 77.5 million against 93.6 in the plan.
Now decompose a real shortfall. Suppose month 36 reports 4,000 advisors live, 472 producing (11.8 per cent), 0.15 tickets each, and an average ticket of 61,000: gross flow 4.32 million against 5.43, a miss of 1.11, or 20.5 per cent.
Substitute one driver at a time, in the order of the funnel:
Live advisors: 0.00 · Conversion: −0.47 · Tickets per producer: 0.00 · Average ticket: −0.64
Total: −1.11, of which conversion 42.6% and ticket 57.4%
Then ask whether the conversion miss is real. Here is the trap: a launch slip also shows up as lower conversion in the month, 12.39 per cent instead of 12.93 in the slip scenario, because each platform is younger. Test conversion platform by platform at equal tenure. If the first platform, at 27 months live, converts 13.5 per cent, that is exactly what the curve predicts for 27 months, and the miss is timing, not conversion. If it converts less than the curve at its actual tenure, conversion has failed.
Two of them. The first is reading the month's flow alone. A slip leaves month 36 only 4.2 per cent short, small enough to be called noise, while 16.1 million of cumulative flow has gone. Always read flow and assets side by side.
The second is trusting a single substitution order. Substituting the ticket first gives it 0.70 of the miss and conversion 0.41; in funnel order it is 0.64 and 0.47. When two drivers both miss, the joint effect is allocated by the order. An order-free split takes each driver's share of the log of the total ratio: here conversion 0.44 and ticket 0.67. Report that, or state the order.
The fixes differ. A ticket miss is about positioning and minimums; a conversion miss is about coverage and the story to advisors, worked in how many advisors one wholesaler can cover; a timing miss is about platform due diligence lead times, and the only cure is to start the next platform earlier.
The full eighty-four-month cohort forecast, with the signature of a miss recomputed, is in the free workbook for this case. The same model's three peaks are discussed in why gross flows rise as growth falls.
By platform cohort: advisors on each live platform, times a conversion rate that rises with months since launch, times tickets per producing advisor, times the average ticket. On the illustrative channel, 4,000 advisors with an 18 per cent ceiling, 0.15 tickets a month and 70,000 tickets give 5.43 million of gross flow in month 36 and 209.7 million of assets including a 150.0 million seed.
Because conversion depends on months since launch. A three-month slip makes every platform younger, so month-36 conversion reads 12.39 per cent against 12.93 in the plan, although each platform converts exactly as the curve predicts for its tenure. Test conversion at equal tenure before blaming coverage or the product story.
Yes, whenever two drivers miss together. On the illustrative 1.11 million shortfall, funnel order gives conversion 0.47 and ticket 0.64; substituting the ticket first gives 0.41 and 0.70. A log split, which does not depend on order, gives 0.44 and 0.67.
Chapter 15 of The Private Wealth Fundraiser sets out the cohort forecast this diagnosis runs on. The book takes the same case from first principles to the decision, chapter by chapter, and every figure it prints is a live formula in the free companion workbooks.
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